Since 1887, Americans (and Canadians) have been looking to a groundhog to forecast when spring will arrive. By February many people are ready for winter to end – they want the snow to melt, the flowers to bloom, and the birds to start singing again. This is where Punxsutawney Phil Sowerby comes in. Every February 2nd at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, a celebration is held and Phil makes his regularly scheduled appearance. While Groundhog Day isn’t technically a public holiday, it is a day that many look forward to and some celebrate, even if that simply means watching “Groundhog Day” on Blu-Ray for the umpteenth year in a row.
No doubt the famed movie increased the popularity of this day; however, having the weather predicted by a 63-year-old groundhog should be reason enough to celebrate. Relying on a marmot to tell you when spring will arrive may seem silly, but there is a method to the madness. The beginning of February is halfway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox, a crossroad of sorts between the seasons. This time of the year has been celebrated in different ways throughout history; the early Christians, the ancient Romans, and the pagan Irish each had their own tradition celebrating this time of the year.
Even though Phil’s record is spotty at best, having made 119 predictions (nine years of which are, unfortunately, missing from his record) with him seeing his shadow 102 times (six more weeks of winter) and not seeing it only 17 times (an early spring), he has an accuracy rate of about 80%. That’s pretty good for a groundhog. Though Phil appears in a public gathering when determining whether or not he sees his shadow, he only speaks to the Club President of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. Phil tells him what he sees in “Groundhogese,” and the Club President relays his message to the rest of the world.
While Phil seems to be a crowd pleaser, there was at least one man he wasn’t able to win over. In 2013, the prosecuting attorney for Butler County, Ohio, Michael Gmoser, filed an indictment against Phil, asking that the beloved groundhog receive the death penalty for predicting an early spring that never came. Gmoser claimed that “Phil did purposely, and with prior calculation and design, cause the people to believe that Spring would come early.” Luckily, Phil had the Nurick Law Group on his side, a Pennsylvania-based law firm that filed a cease and desist notice against Gmoser.
For a creature that only makes an appearance once a year, he seems to have a hefty influence. The Inner Circle of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, the organization that cares for Phil year-round, claims that there has only ever been one Phil. They refuse to disclose how many groundhogs have played the role, instead insisting that Phil really is 63 years old, begat of Pete the (original) groundhog (d. 1952), who lived to be at least 65.
This year Phil once again saw his shadow, and speaking in Groundhogese relayed this message to the Club President: “Forecasts abound on the Internet/But I, Punxsutawney Phil, am still your best bet,/Yes, A Shadow I see, you can start to twitter,/Hash Tag: Six More Weeks of Winter!” So for those of you who are looking forward to an early spring, there’s only a 20% chance that it will happen this year, according to historical record. We’ll all just have to wait and see what the next month brings. If you wish to visit Phil off-season, he resides in a climate-controlled habitat adjoined to the Punxsutawney Library.
– Leah Harrower, JETPUBS Inc.